Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
