Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
